中国与欧洲

 

中国人以耐心著称。在那本中国历史的书中，一个世纪只占一页篇幅。欧洲人就急躁得多。首先，我们哀叹欧洲制造业工作岗位被中国偷走了。接着，我们操心中国人在非洲大肆采购原材料。如今我们正努力接受一个事实：中国正在收购各种各样的欧洲企业。

 

Europe should not complain. This is all part of globalisation and capitalism, the two pillars of our economic success in the past 100 years. Nevertheless, now that China might be seen as the champion of free trade and state-driven capitalism, we should pay close attention to what happens next, or what is already happening. And react accordingly.

 

欧洲不应抱怨。这都是全球化和资本主义的组成部分，这两者正是支撑我们在过去100年取得经济成功的两根支柱。然而，既然中国可被视为自由贸易和国家资本主义的捍卫者，我们应当密切关注接下来会发生什么，或者说目前正在发生什么，并且相应地做出反应。

 

For decades, China has been folding Africa into its supply chain for raw materials – mainly oil and minerals. But it is currently mining Europe for its precious metals and gems: talent, intellectual property, market shares, technology, brands, established businesses and value chains.

 

几十年来，中国一直在把非洲纳入自己的供应链，从非洲获取原材料，主要是石油和矿物。如今，中国正在欧洲挖掘这里的“宝藏”：人才、知识产权、市场份额、技术、品牌、成熟企业和价值链。

 

The gear shift is palpable. China is no longer just the world’s low-cost sweatshop. The shopping list in Europe includes high-tech, higher value added industries and services. A great number of investment bankers, lawyers, and due diligence professionals in London, Frankfurt and Paris are suddenly involved in projects with Chinese principals.

 

这种换挡是可以察觉的。中国不再只是世界的低成本血汗工厂。中国在欧洲的收购清单覆盖高科技、高附加值的产业和服务业。在伦敦、法兰克福和巴黎，大量的投行家、律师和尽职调查专业人士突然投入到了中国委托人的项目中。

 

China is focused on Europe because the essentially protectionist Committee on Foreign Investment of the United States puts all Sino-US transactions under scrutiny and in effect places a “wall” in the path of Chinese investment. The change of control in the White House will not make investment in the US any easier.

 

中国注目欧洲，是因为本质上持保护主义立场的美国外国投资委员会(Committee on Foreign Investment)对所有中美交易进行审查，实际上等于在中国企业投资美国之路上竖起了一面“墙”。白宫换人不会使投资美国变得更容易。

 

This makes our continent lucrative for acquisitive Chinese funds. This week we can see it at Slush in Helsinki, one of the biggest start-up events in Europe, which has drawn many Chinese investors over the years. Two years ago I spent a day there with China’s vice-premier. Yet Europe appears to be taken by surprise by all this interest. It lacks US-style controls and tools for deliberation.

 

这让欧洲大陆对中国收购资金变得有吸引力。我们在近日赫尔辛基初创企业研讨会(Slush)上就可看到这一点。作为欧洲规模最大的初创企业盛会之一，Slush这些年来吸引了很多中国投资者到会。两年前，我曾陪同中国副总理出席了一天会议。不过，欧洲似乎对中国投资者的兴趣感到意外。欧洲没有美国那样的控制措施和审议工具。

 

Europe is waking up to the new reality and its implications, as demonstrated by high-profile cases such as the attempted Chinese takeover of German chipmaker Aixtron. The economy ministry withdrew support after alleged reports that the US intelligence service had warned the government that the technology could be used for military purposes.

 

欧洲开始意识到这种新现实及其意义，一些备受瞩目的交易就说明了这一点，比如中资有意收购德国芯片企业爱思强(Aixtron)的交易。德国经济部收回了对该交易的支持，有报道称，美国情报部门提醒了德国政府，相关技术可能被用于军事目的。

 

Other takeovers pose fewer problems. For instance, Tencent, the Chinese investment holding company, this year bought a majority stake in Supercell. While the Finnish group’s flagship game, Clash of Clans, is a multiplayer test of strategic skill, the acquisition has little strategic importance in the real world.

 

其他收购案带来的问题要少一些。比如，中国的投资控股公司腾讯(Tencent)今年收购了Supercell的多数股权。尽管这家芬兰集团的旗舰游戏《部落战争》(Clash of Clans)是一款考验战略能力的多人对战游戏，这起收购案在现实世界几乎不具有重要战略意义。

 

The big question is how Europe should react.

 

主要问题是欧洲如何应对。

 

The first thing to do is to be aware that the aqcuisitions are taking place and that they are systematic. This is not necessarily a bad thing; Europe needs an injection of foreign capital. At the same time it is important to understand that many, but by no means all, of the transactions are state led and targeted at intellectual property and IT. These could have a strategic impact and should thus be dealt with carefully.

 

第一点是要明白，这些收购正在确实发生，而且是成批的。这未必是坏事；欧洲需要外来资金的注入。同时，有必要搞清楚，很多交易——但绝不是全部——是政府主导的，意在获取知识产权和IT技术。这些交易可能产生战略性的影响，因此应当谨慎地处理。

 

Second, Europe should not burn bridges by taking knee-jerk protectionist measures. Few predicted that the Chinese would emerge as advocates of free trade while the US turned inward. The best option would be a new deal between Europe and the US based on security, foreign policy and trade – but if the administration of Donald Trump decides to scrap the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with Europe, we will have to look elsewhere. In terms of size and scale, China is the obvious direction in which to look.

 

第二点，欧洲不应条件反射地采取保护主义措施、烧断桥梁。很少人预料到，中国人会成为自由贸易的倡导者，而美国却把目光转向国内。最佳选项是欧洲和美国在安全、外交政策和贸易方面达成一项新协议，但如果唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)政府决定抛弃《跨大西洋贸易与投资伙伴关系协定》(TTIP)，我们将不得不把目光投向别处。从体量和规模上看，欧洲的目光显然应该投向中国。

 

Third, Europe should seek common solutions. The natural reaction is to go native, to come up with national as opposed to common rules. This would be the wrong approach. Europe would become a patchwork flea market instead of a co-ordinated internal market. The left hand would not know what the right hand was doing. And in any case history has shown that protectionism leads nowhere.

 

第三点，欧洲应当寻求达成共同解决方案。自然的反应是各自为政，各自拟定本国应对策略，而不是制定共同对策。这将是错误的。欧洲将成为一个大杂烩般的跳蚤市场，而不是协调一致的内部市场。左手将不知右手在做什么。况且历史已证明，保护主义没有出路。

 

Perhaps it is finally time for Europeans to be patient; to understand that the balance of economic power is shifting. It is not about blue-collar work moving continents. It is about white-collar companies changing owners. That is imbedded in the basic nature of global capitalism.

 

也许，欧洲人终于到了必须拿出耐心的时候了；要理解经济力量格局正在发生变化。重点不是蓝领工作从一个大陆流向另一个大陆，而是白领公司换了主。这种变化根植于全球化资本主义的基本特性之中。

 

The best way to react is to remain cool, calm and collected – to assess the situation, understand what is going on and try to come up with a joint approach. My hope is that this happens sooner rather than later. My fear is that we are already too late. This is yet further proof that markets are often a step ahead of the regulators.

 

最佳对策是保持沉着、冷静、泰然处之，要评估形势、理解当前正在发生的事情，努力制定共同方针。我希望欧洲尽快这么做。但我担心我们已为时太迟。这进一步证明，市场经常比监管机构快一步。

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