傅莹：如何应对变化中的美国？

 

本文摘编自傅莹女士2018年8月28-29日在亚洲协会等机构的演讲《中美今天的选择决定未来两国关系》。中文版来源于9月11日环球网，英文版于9月10日发表在彭博社。

 

 

如何应对变化中的美国？

 

How Should China Respond to a Changing U.S.?

 

 

最近访问美国期间，我见到的每位学者都说，美国对华态度彻底改变了，并声称是府学、两党的共识。在美国帮助中国加入世贸组织、实现经济腾飞之后，中国没有接受美国的政治制度，美方对此感到失望。在与中国的经贸交往中，美方认为自己很“吃亏”，更担心中国在全球经济和技术阶梯上的快速提升。美方还认为在军事上受到被中国“挤出”亚洲的威胁。

 

Visiting the U.S. recently, I was told by virtually every American I met that attitudes toward China had shifted. This phenomenon, they claimed, cut across bipartisan lines as well as government, business and academic circles. The U.S. was frustrated at not having shaped China in its own image, despite bringing the country into the World Trade Organization and helping to enable its economic takeoff. Instead, China had “ripped off” the U.S. by taking advantage of it in trade and business. There was concern at how fast China was climbing up the global economic and technological ladder, and that its military was threatening to “elbow out” the U.S. from Asia.

 

 

尽管美国对华态度在变，但向哪里转变呢，似乎没有人说得清楚。历史地看，美国是在应对一个个事项的处置过程中，经过试错和凝聚共识来完成大的战略调整。因而可以预期，美国进行任何调整也会需要一段时间。这也意味着，未来的最终结果将会受到两国相互作用的影响。

 

Although attitudes may have changed, I’m not convinced they’ve settled yet. Judging from American history, major strategies are usually shaped through trial and error, in response to specific challenges. Consensus develops along the way. Any adjustment in the U.S. posture toward China will therefore take time. This also means that the final outcome will be affected by how the two countries act and react in the coming months and years.

 

 

 在斟酌下一步如何走之前，中国人首先要问：美国的指责是否公允？的确，中国并未随着经济增长而接受美国的政治制度。还记得，九十年代中期我参加了一个美国政府为发展中国家外交官组织的访谈项目，议题是美国国家安全战略和政策的制定。期间我反复问这样一个问题：冷战后美国新的国际战略目标是什么？得到的明确回答是，在全球推行美国式的人权价值观和民主制度。之后的20多年美国确实这样做了，结果成本高昂，代价巨大。

 

In evaluating next steps, the Chinese people first have to ask whether U.S. criticisms are fair. It’s true that economic growth hasn’t produced in China a political system similar to the U.S.’s. Interestingly, I recall attending an American government program in the mid-1990s designed for diplomats from developing nations. The topic was U.S. security strategy and policy-making. I had one question: What were America’s strategic objectives for the post-Cold War era? The answer was unambiguous: to promote U.S.-style democracy and human rights worldwide. And indeed, the U.S. has pursued those goals consistently over the last two decades, at huge cost to itself and others.

 

 

美国在中国未能实现自己的政治目标，但显然这不是美国唯一的“失败”，更不是最惨痛的。在见证了“颜色革命”和“阿拉伯之春”给一些国家带来的后果之后，美国应该庆幸，中国没有自废武功地走上错误的道路，既没陷入政治动荡，也没出现经济混乱，而是保持总体社会稳定，成功走出一条符合自身国情的经济发展道路，为全球经济——特别是2008年金融危机之后的全球经济——做出了贡献。伊拉克和阿富汗的重建让美国耗费了大量财政资源，而中国的发展极大地惠及了美国的繁荣。

 

China isn’t America’s only failure — nor the worst one. In fact, given what’s happened to some countries since the “color revolutions” and the “Arab Spring,” the U.S. should be thankful that its efforts haven’t thrown China into political turmoil and economic chaos. The fact that China has maintained social and political stability and followed its own economic path has contributed to global economic growth, especially after the 2008 financial crisis. Rather than draining U.S. finances the way the nation-building efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan have, China has added greatly to American prosperity.

 

中国充分利用美欧推动的全球化带来的机遇，经济发展蒸蒸日上。勤劳的中国人民有效地使用了国际资金、技术、经验和市场，促进了工业化进程。数以亿计的中国人民摆脱了贫困，人民生活水平取得巨大提升。

 

True, China’s fortunes have risen as well. Taking advantage of the globalization promoted by the U.S. and Europe, hardworking Chinese gained access to global capital, technologies, expertise and markets, all of which facilitated the growth of industry. Hundreds of millions of Chinese came out of poverty, and living standards in the country have risen substantially.

 

 

但必须记住两点：第一，与他们的美国同行一样，中国工人为这些发展付出了巨大的代价。例如，入世之后，国内企业突然直接面对国际竞争，多数产业陷入困难，有的甚至难以为继，大量工人下岗。同时，中国大规模进行法律法规的清理修订工作。在短时间内，中央政府清理了2000多件，地方政府清理了19万多件，艰难地克服在管理上推进广泛再构建的困难。

 

But it’s important to remember two things. First, Chinese workers paid a steep cost for these developments, just as American workers did. After entering the World Trade Organization, Chinese enterprises were suddenly thrown into direct competition with global peers. Many of them didn’t survive, leading to huge layoffs all over the country. At the same time, more than 2,000 laws and regulations had to be revised or abolished at the national level and about 190,000 more at the local level, causing widespread dislocation.

 

第二，中国的发展同样惠及美国。牛津研究院估计，从中国进口的低价商品帮助普通美国家庭平均每年节省850美元。从2001年到2016 年，美国货物贸易对华出口增长500%，远高于同期对全球出口90%的增幅。万物联网时代的到来和中国快速增长的中高收入消费者群体的出现，将为美国公司提供更多机会。中国已成为世界经济不可分割的组成部分，更是世界经济增长不可或缺的重要动力来源之一。任何“脱钩”的尝试都必然给世界各国带来严重的损伤，包括对美国。

 

Second, China’s gains have benefited the U.S. as well. According to Oxford Economics, U.S.-China trade helps each American family save $850 every year. Between 2001 and 2016, U.S. commodities exports to China expanded five times, much higher than the 90 percent average increase. The advent of the “internet of things” and rapid growth in the number of China’s middle- and upper-class consumers will offer even more opportunities for U.S. companies. China is not only an integral part of the global economy, but also an indispensable source of growth. Any attempt to “decouple” it from the U.S. or the global economy will hurt all countries, including the U.S.

 

中国应如何回应？面对来自美国强硬但混乱的声音，我们需要保持淡定，重要的是聚焦自身发展，解决好自己的问题。

 

So what should China’s response be? The Chinese have to stay cool-headed in the face of tough but confusing messages from the U.S. We must stay focused on China’s development, and overcome our own difficulties.

 

中国没有对美采取更加对抗的态度。因为，中国对美政策是整体外交政策的组成部分，而中国外交政策的目标是维护一个和平的外部环境和合作的国际关系, 以服务于国家的发展。因此，中国有理由继续坚持“建设性合作”的政策。

 

China is not adopting a more confrontational stance toward the U.S. Its current attitude is part of its overall foreign policy, which is aimed at ensuring a sound environment that facilitates effective cooperation with the outside world to serve China’s development goals. For its purposes, there’s every reason for China to maintain an attitude of “constructive cooperation” with the U.S.

 

中美关系的变局对中国也是又一次倒逼改革的机会。美方工商界提出来的市场准入等问题，许多正是中方需要通过改革着力解决的。事实上，中国政府正在进一步推进开放：国家主席习近平今年四月宣布的11项开发市场的具体承诺，迄已落实8项，涉及银行、证券、保险、评级、征信、支付等。政府也在下大力气改善营商环境，加强对中外企业知识产权的保护。中国的改革者可以将外部压力转化为动力，打破阻力、实现必要的改革成效。

 

In fact, changes in U.S.-China relations may help to push China’s own desired reforms. Some requests raised by U.S. companies, such as increased market access, dovetail with recommendations from China’s leaders. The government is, in fact, opening up: Eight out of the 11 market-opening measures announced by President Xi Jinping in April have been put in place, covering banking, securities, insurance, credit rating, credit investigation and payment, and so on. The government is also working harder to improve the business environment and strengthen intellectual property protections for both Chinese and foreign enterprises. Chinese reformers can turn outside pressure to their advantage, using it to bust through internal resistance to necessary changes.

 

但有一点必须清楚：中方绝不会屈服于关税霸凌。有些言论声称贸易战使中国经济“滑坡”，还有人认为可以期待中国屈服了。这只是一厢情愿。

 

But make no mistake: The Chinese people will stand firm against U.S. bullying over trade. There is talk about China’s economy “sliding down” as a result of the trade war. Some expect China to succumb soon. I can tell you that this is wishful thinking.

 

中国经济正在去杠杆期间，本身就存在较多痛点，处于咬紧牙关砥砺前行的阶段，这也是为了维持未来的健康发展不得不做的。需要提的一句是，2008年金融危机以来，中国正是为了参与解救美国所引发的金融风暴，才采取了较大规模的经济刺激政策。贸易战或许会减缓必要的去杠杆进程。

 

Yes, China is in the process of deleveraging, which is uncomfortable and painful. But it is a price worth paying for sustaining healthy development. It’s worth remembering that China adopted a stimulus program to help overcome the global recession triggered by the 2008 financial tsunami in the U.S. And it’s worth noting that the trade war may slow the necessary process of deleveraging.

 

抱怨和伤害对方解决不了问题，只会让情况更糟。因此中国将坚持与包括美国在内的更多国家在双方都关心的领域进行合作，包括应对气候变化、打击跨国犯罪、防治传染病和防止核扩散等方方面面。

 

Finger-pointing and hurting each other won’t solve any problems. They will only make things worse. This is why China will continue to work with all countries, including the U.S., in areas of mutual concern — from climate change to transnational crime to epidemics to nuclear nonproliferation.

 

因此，中国应继续与美方沟通。在许多中国人看来，美国的麻烦是美国自己的问题，需要美国人自己解决。我们可以看到，美国社会在分裂和转型压力之下面临严峻挑战，需要全面调整。但同时，中方有责任坚持对话，逐步澄清双方的一致点和分歧点，以拆解矛盾和解决问题、抑或管理难题的方式，渡过中美关系的险滩激流。

 

This is also why China should continue talking to the U.S. Many in China believe that the root causes of U.S. troubles lie within — and therefore need to be solved by Americans themselves. We can see that the U.S. system requires a major overhaul to overcome deep sociopolitical divisions and economic disparities. But that doesn’t relieve China of the responsibility to engage in dialogue, to find out where the two sides can and can’t agree, and to seek solutions or at least ways to manage persistent disputes.

 

当然，那些一心寻求对抗的人或许不会对这个途径感兴趣。但是——让我借用一个俚语——如果有些人想追逐蝴蝶，其他人为什么要随之起舞呢？

 

Such an approach won’t appeal to those who seek confrontation now. But, to borrow a saying, if some folks want to chase butterflies, why should the rest of us go dancing along with them?

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